Coming into today I had three scenarios outlined for how I expected the market to play out today…
…And the winner is Scenario 1!
I have embraced a new habit of not taking any trades in the first 10-30 minutes of the U.S. trading session, so that I can get a sense of what the market is looking to do. There are times though that I have to break from that tradition because of the overwhelming evidence being presented by the chart. Today was one of those days.
I had a total of three trading sequences today. As bullish as today was the combined total of contracts I traded was 9. That’s a good stat for me. It shows me that I did not over trade.
My first trade sequence came in the first 10 minutes of the U.S. trading session:
I was expecting more of a reaction at settlement so to see price continue higher in an aggressive manner caught me off guard. As a result I sat on my hands after this trade until I felt I had a better read on what was happening.
By the time of my second trade sequence, the market had a decisively bullish tone to it. Price had just broken into previous value area and I attempted to capitalize on a possible 80% rule trade. I set my entry for my first contract right at the TPO profile value area low.
After resting for a bit, I came back to see how the market was performing. To my surprise, a new all time high had been printed on NQ futures. I thought to myself, this might be a good time to find a short trade opportunity. So as price broke through and closed below the monthly volume value area low, I entered once contract short. Big mistake. This market was way to bullish. Recognizing my error, I covered my short position and went long, scaling in along the way to increase my total profit.
Overall, a good day. I kept my risk under control and I recognized my errors and didn’t try to hold on to my bias.
I will do a separate post for my trade plan for tomorrow.